If....Orient are staying up

If the season was to end tomorrow not many Orient fans would be too sorry. Its the time of the season when teams with something to play for start looking at their opponents' remaining fixtures and current form, trying to work out how many points they are going to need and where they will come from. In the hope of not having to spend the next few weeks fretting about Orient's upcoming games I have done exactly that. And it's GOOD NEWS as I predict that despite a nervous month for Orient, Oldham and Bury fans the final table will look much like it does now. If...

As things currently stand every team from 16th place Preston downwards are currently embroiled in the relegation battle. I am sure that Preston and Oldham would like to think they are safe as they are currently 6 points clear of danger and need 4 points from 5 games in order to be safe. However, Preston have only managed 1 win in their last 12 games and would be sliding down the slippery slope even quicker if not for their ability to regularly hold teams to draws. Similarly Oldham have managed 2 wins and 8 defeats over their last ten games as they've edged closer and closer to the relegation zone. The two teams face each other in a huge game on 21 April, the winner of which will probably be safe before the end of the month. I suspect it'll be Preston, who have struggled so much due to playing teams at the top and they have been able to win against the lower sides. That will throw Oldham into a the fight and they'll be forced to battle right up to the end of the season. I think they will struggle in their next three against Sheffield Wednesday, Wycombe and Preston, before picking up the points they need against Bury and Carlisle.

Obviously the other team completely out of sorts are Orient. I am sure there is a Wycombe fan somewhere sitting looking at our record and thinking that we pick up the odd away win and should be able to do so against either Exeter or Hartlepool. It is a different kettle of fish when you've been following our fortunes week in and out and are now wondering where our next win will come from. We're always pessimistic about our own team but trying to be rational about it I don't expect us to lose every game any more than I expect Charlton and Sheffield United to breeze through and win all of theirs. I still think we'll be stumbling right through to the end though. Despite the improved performance against Notts County it is hard to see us getting anything at home, which makes the away games against Exeter and Hartlepool crucial. I fancy the Exeter game to be a stalemate because both sides have been unable to find the net and the Grecians will put up one last fight even though they are all but relegated. The vital points will come against Hartlepool who have had a rotten time since having little to play for in mid-table obscurity. Anything against Sheffield United would be a bonus and Yeovil are capable of winning away and will capitalise on our home woes. I would expect Orient to reach the last day of the season on 50 points - in theory enough but still too close to comfort. A final home draw against Rochdale (who like Exeter seem beyond help now) should be enough with Wycombe suffering from having the most difficult of run ins.

Wycombe are the team I expect to move the most as they face two games against struggling teams before playing stronger teams in their final three games. On Monday they face Chesterfield, practically relegated already and on a roll of three straight defeats since their Wembley appearance in the JPT Final. A win will enable Wycombe to cruise up to the Os, before going past us with a home win against Oldham. From there I think it gets just a bit too hard from them. They face trips to Charlton and Sheffield Wednesday, the latter winning regularly at home, the former stuttering but managing to beat teams in the bottom half of the table. That leaves a home fixture against Notts County who we have seen get results despite not looking very good away from home. Wycombe may get a point against the Magpies but it won't be enough and their fate will be sealed at Hillsborough on the last day.

That is if Bury pick up the four points they need to scramble to safety. Bury have had a difficult time on their travels of late and will be grateful that they are the only side in the relegation battle with 3 home games in their last 5. They should get the points they need from their next two home games, against Colchester (who have been drawing a lot of away games but losing to teams who still have something to play for) and against Bournemouth who are in freefall and losing for fun on their travels. They also face Stevenage on the last day of the season, another draw specialist team, who will probably have their eyes on the holiday's more than most after a tumultuous season.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Dean Smith at Walsall this summer, especially if the Orient board take a long hard look at Russell Slade's position, regardless of where we end up. For two seasons now he has shown he can motivate teams at the sharp end of the season to fight their way out of trouble. The WalsallWalsall are on a terrific run, beating the teams they need to (and even taking 4 points from the Sheffield clubs), regularly winning at home and drawing away. On Friday they showed the sort of determination we'd expect from a team managed by our old skipper, coming from behind to beat Chesterfield. On paper they have a difficult run in, that includes Charlton, Huddersfield and MK Dons. However, they've shown enough lately to make you believe that they can pick up a point at the Valley and follow it up with a win against struggling Tranmere next Saturday. Draws away at Exeter and Huddersfield, who have drawn most of their recent away games, will see them effectively safe before the last day. Even if they're not MK Dons have struggled to win at home and I wouldn't put it past the Saddlers to get the result they need to if it comes to it.

Unfortunately (in the circumstances) football isn't as predictable as we'd like i to be but it does show just how little we need to do to secure our safety. The opportunities are there for the Os and if we can't take the points we need from the games we have with the players we have at our disposal then sadly we don't deserve to stay up. Come on you Os!

Projected final table

16. Walsall 55
17. Preston 54
18. Oldham 52
19. Bury 51
20. Leyton Orient 51
--------------------------
21. Wycombe 49
22. Rochdale 41
23. Exeter 39
24. Chesterfield 36